Newswise — Space is becoming ever more important to U.S. military and commercial activities. The increasing reliance of the United States on space for economic and military power has amplified the incentive for potential adversaries to exploit the inherent vulnerabilities of space assets.
As a result, analysts are revisiting deterrence concepts in a space context as one possible strategy to enhance U.S. security in this regard.
Last month, Secure World Foundation, in cooperation with the Naval Postgraduate Institute, the Air Force's National Space Studies Center, and George Washington University's Space Policy Institute, held a workshop in Washington, D.C. That workshop brought together a core group of policy and strategic thinkers to discuss key lessons, impacts and points to bear in mind when thinking about space deterrence.
Workshop topics ranged from the analysis of deterrence as a viable strategy, to the threat to space assets and key policy aspects of deterrence.
Face of 21st century deterrence
A fundamental workshop observation is that the U.S. faces the key issue of what the face of 21st century deterrence might look like. In a post- Cold War era, the number, range, and variety of players has increased significantly, and space is perhaps the most globalized of political and military arenas. As such, there is much debate as to what the face of deterrence for space should look like, and how large a role it should play in overall US strategic thinking in protection its space assets.
"Maturing the discussion of space deterrence is important because deterrence ultimately provides the best protection of space and enhances U.S. national security" , says Colonel Sean McClung, Director of the National Space Studies Center at Maxwell Air Force Base.
McClung adds: "Successful space deterrence can prevent conflicts that create massive debris fields and result in a universal inability to effectively use the space environment."
Other events on this topic, most notably those of the National Defense University and the Eisenhower Center for Space and Defense Studies, highlight the currency of this theme and its consideration by the upper echelons of political and military thinkers.
Denial deterrence
Dean Cheng, a Senior Asia Analyst with CNA, gave a critical talk on the Chinese perspective on the concept of deterrence. "Where the Western conception of deterrence is one that focuses on dissuasion and rejects a role for deterrence in coercion, the Chinese one apparently incorporates both dissuasion and coercion," Cheng said, "thus allowing strategic goals to be achieved without actual conflict."
Brian Weeden, Secure World Foundation's (SWF) technical expert, discussed the use of denial deterrence to protect critical space assets from kinetic attacks.
"Normally we think of deterrence as threat of force which dissuades someone from taking an action," says Weeden. "But denial deterrence seeks to eliminate any advantage an adversary would gain from taking an action, thus removing the incentive."
The key, according to Weeden, is to replace existing constellations containing a few large satellites with constellations consisting of larger numbers of redundant smaller satellites. That way, any physical attack that destroys one or two satellites only slightly degrades the capability of the entire constellation.
Important goals
A central point of the March 19-20 workshop held at George Washington University's Space Policy Institute in Washington, D.C. was the response to attack on space assets.
In other domains such as air and sea, there are usually clearly delineated rules and responses to an attack. But in space, the issue is much more complex, particularly because attacks on satellites usually don't involve direct loss of human life.
"In some situations, attacking a satellite may be the most humane option a military commander has for achieving an objective," explains John Sheldon, a professor with the School for Advanced Air and Space Studies at Maxwell Air Force Base.
Other participants noted both the advantage and disadvantage of having predefined "red lines" that dictate certain levels of response to aggression against space assets. As more and more actors enter the space arena, protecting U.S. space assets in the broader picture of improved U.S. national security is essential.
Important goals include:
* Constructive engagement with other space players;* Protecting the long-term sustainability of outer space activities; and * Preventing possible conflict escalation in the space environment.
As such, the building of an effective and coherent space deterrence concept that is relevant for modern space activities, challenges and threats should be viewed as a key building block to improved U.S. national security, SWF's Weeden concludes.
Secure World Foundation (SWF) is headquartered in Superior, Colorado, with offices in Washington, D.C. and Vienna, Austria. SWF is a private operating foundation dedicated to the secure and sustainable use of space for the benefit of Earth and all its peoples.
SWF engages with academics, policy makers, scientists and advocates in the space and international affairs communities to support steps that strengthen global space security. It promotes the development of cooperative and effective use of space for the protection of Earth's environment and human security.
The Foundation acts as a research body, convener and facilitator to advocate for key space security and other space related topics and to examine their influence on governance and international development.
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