Newswise — Newt Gingrich continues to retain his frontrunner status in Iowa among candidates seeking the Republican presidential nomination, but his support in the state may be declining, according to a University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll released today.
With the Iowa caucuses just three weeks away, Gingrich retains his lead over Mitt Romney, with 29.8 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers indicating that they would vote for Gingrich and 20.3 percent of the respondents supporting Romney if the caucuses were held today. Ron Paul placed third with 10.7 percent. Among other candidates, Michelle Bachman had 8.5 percent, Rick Perry had 8.2 percent, Rick Santorum had 5.3 percent, Herman Cain had 4.4 percent, and John Huntsman had 1.5 percent.
Cain's announcement to suspend his campaign occurred midway through polling. A comparison of responses before and after his announcement on Dec. 3 shows his support decreasing from 6.5 percent to 2.9 percent. After Cain's departure from the race, the survey found support for Gingrich dropping from 37.7 percent to 24.4 percent. The prime beneficiaries appear to be Paul, whose support increased from 7.1 percent to 13 percent; Perry, who went from 4.8 percent to 10.4 percent; and Santorum, who went from 2.7 percent to 7.0 percent. The percentage of respondents who were not sure who their choice would be also increased from 5.6 percent to 13.8 percent. Cain supporters appear to spread out among the other candidates in the race.
Frederick Boehmke, associate professor of political science in the UI College of Liberal Arts and Sciences and faculty adviser of the Hawkeye Poll, says that although Gingrich is currently in the lead, he may be losing support.
"Gingrich's 29.8 percent share among likely GOP caucus-goers still gives him a nine-point lead over Romney, but our results show that his support may be starting to slide as it has with previous frontrunners," Boehmke says. "The gap has closed to 5.1 percentage points even though Romney's support has changed very little."
Gingrich's lead over Romney is smaller among "very likely" caucus-goers, with 29.0 percent stating they would vote for him if the caucuses were held today compared to 22.6 percent who identified Romney as their preferred candidate. This gap widened among those "somewhat likely" to attend the caucuses, with 31.2 percent supporting Gingrich and 16 percent supporting Romney if the caucuses were held today. Among "very likely" caucus-goers, Bachmann placed third with 11.2 percent of respondents.
Similar results occur among "strong" Republicans—28.9 percent would vote for Gingrich and 23.1 percent would vote for Romney if the caucuses were held today. Gingrich's lead is larger when looking at Iowans who identify as Republican but "not strongly." Of those, 35.9 percent would vote for Gingrich and 20.7 percent would vote for Romney in the caucuses. Of those who identified as "not strong" Republicans, 8.6 percent said they would support Paul.
More poll results and analysis are online at http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2011/december/121211Caucus_Haweye_Poll.html
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