Newswise — As North Korea enters an 11-day period of official mourning following the death of leader Kim Jong-Il, a period of heightened uncertainty has begun in a nation already well known for its secrecy and unpredictability. Two Florida State University scholars are available to discuss and provide informed perspectives on the current situation in that country, as well as what may come next.
· Robert Gellately, Florida State’s Earl Ray Beck Professor of History: [email protected] Gellately, author of the acclaimed “Lenin, Stalin and Hitler: The Age of Social Catastrophe” (Knopf, 2007), is an expert in the history of modern Communist dictators from Lenin to the present. He can discuss what happens when such dictators die, including the succession crises that often follow. “Some of the very public demonstrations of grief that we’re currently observing in North Korea are not unusual in authoritarian regimes. In fact, they were widespread after Josef Stalin’s death as well. Despite his repression, Stalin was widely mourned; there was an enormous outpouring of sorrow, even in the Gulag. In North Korea, it’s difficult to tell whether scenes of citizens weeping in the streets reflects genuine sorrow over the death of the Great Leader, an uncertainty about the future, or an orchestrated show of love for the regime.” · Christopher M. Reenock, associate professor of political science: (850) 644-4542; [email protected] (easiest to reach by email) Reenock’s research focuses on democratic/autocratic regimes. He can discuss issues relating to the regime transition process as well as factors that precipitate shifts or changes in regimes. “With the recent announcement of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il’s death, there has been great speculation about what his son Kim Jong-Un’s succession may mean for the North Korean state and people. However, we must be careful not to overemphasize the role of the individual seated in the top post. More critical is the fundamental power play among the set of actors whose collective support is necessary for the leader to survive. This ‘winning coalition’ is quite small in North Korea — on the order of several hundred — and consists of military and Communist Party leaders. The real challenge for the international intelligence community, then, is estimating the coalition members’ preferences.”
RSS