Young Adults Respond to Cigarette Price Cuts

Newswise — When cigarette prices drop, young people are more likely to pick up the smoking habit, according to a Canadian study of adults age 20 to 24.

After years of tobacco-tax hikes to discourage smoking, the Canadian government and several provinces reversed their tobacco-tax policy in the early 1990s to combat cigarette smuggling. In the five tax-cut provinces, the reduction in price ranged from $14 to $21 per carton (in Canadian dollars).

"We found that a big decrease in cigarette price resulted in an increase in smoking initiation among young adults," said principal investigator Joanna Cohen.

The study, published in the current issue of the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, used surveys of nonsmokers in their early 20s to examine the proportion who later became smokers.

"People were interviewed at one point of time, and then another, and in between there was this huge change in price," said Cohen, an assistant professor with the University of Toronto's Department of Public Health Sciences. The 636 Canadians who were surveyed represent more than 1 million young adults.

In tobacco-tax cut provinces — where cigarette prices dropped dramatically — 10.5 percent of the young people surveyed became smokers. In the provinces with no tobacco-tax cut, 8.5 percent of the young adults took up smoking.

"Two percentage points in a big population turns out to be a lot of people. When you're talking about the numbers of kids who are smoking, that's huge," Cohen said.

The gap in smoking initiation rates remained significant when the researchers examined the data to make sure the differences could not be explained by other factors — like income and education levels, or variances in local smoke-free laws.

Cohen said the study results mirror existing research on tobacco price elasticity, a measure of how consumer demand for a product is influenced when prices change.

"If there's an increase in the price of chicken, you might buy tofu or something else," Cohen said. "Cigarettes are interesting because they are addictive. Because of the addiction, people aren't just going to move to a different product as quickly."

Tobacco policy researcher Alison Albers said Cohen's work is timely because tobacco-control advocates and researchers have a heightened interest in what works to prevent smoking among very young adults.

"This paper is of greater importance given the shift in focus of the tobacco industry on the young adult population, particularly around promotions in bars and restaurants," said Albers, an assistant professor in Boston University's school of public health.

Tighter restrictions on sales and marketing to teens had pushed cigarette makers to re-direct their efforts toward young adults, Albers said.

"Young-adult smokers, if they are in the initiation phase of smoking, are likely to undergo a transition to nonsmoking or heavier smoking; it's really sort of a critical time, and one that's been largely ignored," Albers said.

Cohen and her team conclude that price hikes could be a tool to counteract tobacco marketing to people in their early 20s.

"Since smoking habits tend to become firmly established in early adulthood, reducing smoking initiation in this age group is likely to lead to permanent reductions in cigarette smoking through adult life," the study said.

Zhang B, et al. The impact of tobacco tax cuts on smoking initiation among Canadian young adults. Am J Prev Med 30(6), 2006.