Valerie Bunce, a professor of International Studies and Government at Cornell University, is an expert on politics, international relations and conflict in Eastern and Central Europe, the Balkans and the former Soviet states. She comments on escalating tensions within Ukraine following that government’s decision to delay a free trade deal with the European Union under perceived pressure from Russia.
Bunce says: “It is tempting to interpret recent developments in Ukraine – that is, the eruption of large-scale protests in response to President Yanukovich's decision to expand trade and political relations with Russia and to proceed more cautiously on integration with the European Union – as a function of Russian pressure on its neighbor, Yanukovich's close political and economic ties to Russia, and the growing chasm between Ukrainian public opinion and the preferences of its political leaders.
“However, the story is more complex.
“The EU had little in terms of specific benefits to offer Ukraine, especially in the short term, whereas Russia did. Moreover, Ukraine and Russia are already tightly integrated with one another. Finally, for historical reasons, Ukrainians are divided on the issue of whether their country should orient itself more towards the West or towards Russia.
“Thus, just as Yanukovich is walking a difficult policy line that requires responding to competing constituencies with respect to their values and their interests, so the protesters in the streets represent only one of those constituencies. Indeed, many of them, it is likely, simply do not like Yanukovich or recent trends in Ukrainian economic performance.”
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