Presidential incumbentsJames HiltyProfessor of history
"Not since 1972 has the power of presidential incumbency been so intensely leveraged," says Hilty, who has written extensively on the Kennedy, Truman, Roosevelt and Clinton administrations. "Bush and his advisers have used the office with notable effectiveness in attempts to limit protests and to diminish, even de-legitimize, the opposition, intimating that criticisms of Bush or protests against his policies are tantamount to disloyalty. Whether the Democrats can find an answer to the politics of terrorism remains to be seen. It could be an election for the ages."
Expertise: Hilty's primary research interests are the American presidency and presidential races, particularly since 1928. He has studied legacies of presidents, their handling of foreign affairs, their domestic policies, and presidential politics. Author of Robert Kennedy: Brother Protector and John F. Kennedy: An Idealist without Illusions, Hilty teaches courses in U.S. and presidential history since the Civil War, as well as recent U.S. political history.
Polling and mass mediaSusan HerbstDean of the College of Liberal Arts
"Public opinion polling has severely damaged political discourse in the United States, and this damage is especially evident during presidential election campaigns. While public opinion is a vital aspect of democracy, it is cheapened and distorted by the constant emphasis on numbers, projections, and the 'horse race" approach we see in the news."
Expertise: A political scientist and scholar of public opinion, mass media and political communication, Herbst is a harsh critic of opinion polls and media outlets that rely on polls rather than pursuing new voices and perspectives in their political coverage. She is the author or co-author of four books: Reading Public Opinion: Political Actors View the Democratic Process, Public Opinion, Politics at the Margin: Historical Studies of Public Expression Outside the Mainstream, and Numbered Voices: How Opinion Polling Has Shaped American Politics. Herbst has written numerous journal articles, book chapters and conference papers on polling and public opinion and has studied the nature of presidential rhetoric with regard to public opinion.
Foreign policyRichard ImmermanHistory department chairman
"Americans do, as the adage counsels, 'vote their pocketbooks,' except on those occasions when issues of national security and foreign policy are unusually salient and contentious," says Immerman, whose scholarship focuses on the history of U.S. foreign relations, particularly since World War II. "In recent history, the presidential elections of 1940 and 1968 come to mind as exceptions to the rule. There are strong indications that 2004 also will prove to be one of those exceptions."
Expertise: Immerman has particular expertise and interest in the process of decision-making and the president's relation with his advisors, the role of intelligence in the formulation of policy, and the application of psychological theory to international behavior. The author of Waging Peace: How Eisenhower Shaped an Enduring Cold War Strategy and John Foster Dulles: Piety, Pragmatism, and Power in U.S. Foreign Policy, Immerman teaches courses on U.S. foreign relations, America as a Superpower, the Vietnam War, U.S. diplomatic history, and the Cold War.
PersonalityFrank FarleyPsychologist
"Everyday folks see personality as a shorthand to understand how a person is," says Farley, a former president of the American Psychological Association. "You don't vote for a president from a straightjacket of policies. People are going to factor in their feelings about the person. If they want to give them this power as the president, they want to know who they are. And personality summarizes so much about an individual."
Expertise: Farley has examined personality traits and how they relate to presidents--from George Washington up through Bill Clinton. Traits that recur frequently for presidents include conscientiousness, striving and achieving, and being active, assertive, immodest and sociable, according to Farley. Presidents also tend to be conservative in their values and actions and generally score low on qualities such as straightforwardness, agreeable-ness, and openness to experience, Farley says.
Media endorsementsPatricia BradleyChair of the department of journalism, public relations and advertising
The use of political endorsements may be even more powerful than the endorsements themselves, says Bradley, recognized as a national authority and innovative thinker in the area of communication history. "A newspaper endorsement may not sway a voter one way or the other. But, when you embed the endorsement within the context of a television ad, it looms larger and more important than it ever was," she says. "This means that a strong endorsement for a candidate without much money most likely won't reach the larger audience beyond the newspaper unless the candidate can afford the advertising to promote the endorsement. In the end, endorsements just seem to advantage those candidates already in a strong position."
Expertise: Bradley has written extensively on the development of American journalism in the 19th century. Prior to her arrival at Temple in 1987, she had a lengthy career in newspaper and television journalism.
Campaign financeRobin KolodnyPolitical science professor
Due to the dates of their respective national conventions this summer, the Democrats will have to stretch their nearly $75 million in public funds a month longer than the GOP, says Kolodny, who spent time on Capitol Hill as a Congressional fellow. That could impact the campaign, as could the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) of 2002, which significantly curtailed the role of soft money in federal elections, she notes. "This is the first real election since BCRA and we don't know how that will play out."
Expertise: Kolodny has researched legislative politics, political parties, interest groups, the U.S. Congress, and the impact of soft money on elections and special interest spending. She's the author of Pursuing Majorities: Congressional Campaign Committees in American Politics.
African-American votersThad MathisProfessor of Social Work
"There is a large anti-Bush movement afoot in the black community," says Mathis, a former director of both the Institute for African-American Development and the Institute for Africana Social Work. "Like many other constituencies, the black community is questioning the president's credibility and integrity with each revelation about dubious prewar intelligence. The Democrats can't win without the African-American votes. If Iraq continues to be an issue in November, you'll see many African-Americans supporting the Democrats. In their minds, any candidate will be better than Bush. After the 2000 election, a fair number of black voters, disheartened by both parties, are thinking like independents. As of now, that still plays into the Democrats' favor, given the strong anti-Bush sentiment over the economy, Iraq, and civil liberties."
Expertise: Knowledgeable in both social work and political science, Mathis is an authority on African-American politics and can discuss issues of concern to black voters and turnout patterns for black voters. He has researched the political process and grassroots organizations from an African-American perspective.
National Policy-makingGary MucciaroniPolitical science professor
"This election is going to be a referendum on the president's performance--his performance on the economy and his performance on the war in terrorism and Iraq," says Mucciaroni. "Those issues will dominate. The gay rights issue will get some people to get out and vote on one side or the other. But it's the middle-of-the-road independents, the middle third of people who aren't firmly anchored in either camp, who will decide the election."
Expertise: Mucciaroni's research interests focus on the politics of gay and lesbian rights, the politics of poverty, and politics and national public policy-making. He's the author of Reversals of Fortune: Public Policy & Private Interests, The Political Failure of Employment Policy and the forthcoming Deliberative Choices: Debating Public Policies in Congress. Additionally, he teaches a course titled "Politics, Rights and Sexual Orientation" and has presented his research on the politics of gay and lesbian rights and same-sex marriage before the American Political Science Association.
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