Survey Provides a Reality Check on Candidates' Rhetoric
What do voters really think about issues related to health and aging?
Survey uses a new method that produces statistically valid results via the Web.
Media contact: Reid Maness, [email protected], 919-541-7044
September 21, 2000Research Triangle Park, NC -- Gen X is just as concerned about retirement questions as Boomers.
While voters in general like the idea of letting people put some Social Security money into the stock market, retirees oppose the idea by 2-to-1.
Most people think Medicare, and not the private sector, should provide prescription drug coverage for the elderly. Retired people prefer Medicare by a 2-to-1 margin.
People who are concerned about health and aging issues prefer Al Gore. People who are not worried about such issues prefer George W. Bush.
These are some findings of a new survey of 6,068 people, conducted over the past month by the independent, nonprofit science organization, Research Triangle Institute. The complete report is available to the public at http://www.RTI-KnowledgeNetworks.org (as of 10 a.m., 9/21/2000).
Of the respondents, 62% said "I will definitely vote," and RTI focused the analysis on these likely voters.
With other polls predicting the lowest voter turnout in history, turnout among retired people may be especially important. RTI's study found that 81% of retirees said "I will definitely vote."
Consistent with other polling, this survey found a statistical dead heat between Bush and Gore, with statistically insignificant numbers of people expressing preferences for Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan.
RTI conducted the study using a Web-enabled method that Knowledge Networks, Inc., of Menlo Park, CA, developed for consumer research. RTI is adapting the method for use in social science research and this survey of health and aging issues is the first such use of the method. This method is the only approach that produces statistically valid results from a survey conducted over the Internet.
RTI found no statistically significant difference in voter preference for the two major party candidates. However, RTI did find a significant preference for Gore among those who report that any given issue in the study is a major concern. RTI also found a preference for Gore among those who report that they are worried about any of the retirement issues included in the survey. On the other hand, RTI found significant preference for Bush among those who do not see the issues as major concerns and among those who report that they are not worried about the retirement issues.
Among retired people, candidates' positions produce stark differences in likely voters' preferences.
Of the 64% of retirees who oppose self-investment of social security funds, 30% say they would vote for George W. Bush, and 56% who say they would vote for Al Gore.
Not surprisingly, retirees are more likely to think that prescription drug benefits should be provided through Medicare (64%, as compared to 56% among non-retirees). Among the 64% who support providing prescription drug benefits through Medicare, 51% say they would vote for Al Gore, compared to 33% who say they would support George W. Bush.
Overall, retirees are evenly split between Al Gore and George W. Bush in their preference for a presidential candidate. Forty-four percent say they would vote for Al Gore if the election were held today, compared to 42% who say they would vote for George W. Bush, a difference that is well within the survey's margin of error.
The survey asked about issues such as having sufficient income, having access to health care, saving for retirement, staying active, getting needed medications, and caring for a critically ill loved one.
RTI is an independent, nonprofit organization dedicated to conducting innovative, multidisciplinary research that improves the human condition. With a worldwide staff of 1,800 people, RTI is active in health and medicine, environmental protection, technology commercialization, education, and decision support systems. Universities in North Carolina founded RTI in 1958 as the first scientific organization in and centerpiece of the Research Triangle Park.
www.rti.org.
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