Newswise — North Korea's decision to test nuclear weapons compounds the difficulty the United States will have in dealing with Iran, according to Iowa State University Professor and Chair of Political Science James McCormick.
But will the Bush administration continue to practice unilateral "hardball" foreign policy when dealing with this latest threat? Or will it soften its approach to become more multilateral, as some critics suggest it must do in the wake of lost support for its foreign policy?
Expect it to stay the course with its current policy says McCormick, who studied the administration's foreign policy decisions for a related presentation during the U.S. Foreign Policy Conference at the University of Leicester in England last month. His appearance was sponsored by the U.S. State Department.
"The degree of policy change has been halting at best, and the clear impression left is that the Bush administration has a 'tin ear' on policy change," McCormick said.
Author of the book "American Foreign Policy and Process," McCormick's Bush foreign policy assessment is based on the following: 1.) Policy on Iraq has not changed.2.) The administration's rhetoric has largely remained combative.3.) Iraq policy continues to be the summation of American foreign policy for many observers.
"Furthermore," said McCormick, "the 2006 National Security Strategy Statement or President Bush's recent pronouncements retain the earlier tone of unilateralism -- including reserving the right of preemptive war -- and continue to emphasize the transformative nature of his foreign policy approach, especially in pursuing democratic change in the Middle East."
As for the latest standoff with North Korea, the U.S. may not be in the best position to support its hard-line approach militarily.
"Now two 'axis of evil' states (North Korea and Iran) are advancing their nuclear weapons programs, and the United States -- with its commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan -- clearly only has diplomatic and economic options for dealing with these latest threats," said McCormick. "The positive signal in this episode, however, is the negative reaction by China to the North Koreans' actions. A tough United Nations resolution may thus be forthcoming. Moreover, this North Korean action may also strengthen the resolve of the Europeans to address the Iranian situation."
The implications of North Korea's nuclear capabilities for Northeast Asia are profound, according to McCormick. "A nuclear-armed North Koreans is a bit of a nightmare scenario for both South Korea and Japan," he said. "Further, a nuclear Northeast Asia would be highly unstable and dangerous for the international community."
But in spite of the threat, there's not much support for whatever the Bush foreign policy is these days -- either at home or abroad. Although international criticism of administration policy has long been prevalent, McCormick agrees that domestic criticism of foreign policy has grown in recent months -- in terms of public opinion, congressional opposition, and two important court losses. Yet little has changed in terms of the administration's foreign policy actions.
"Part of the explanation is the lack of effective domestic constraints," he said. "That is, policy constraints begin at home, especially for a nation that has substantial global power and for a leader who is determined to pursue his global vision. Without sustained and coherent domestic constraints, the administration has little incentive for real policy change."
According to McCormick, research on foreign policy opinion suggests that the public's view must reach about 60 percent before impacting policy. Currently, he reports that only about 20 percent want an immediate withdrawal of American troops from Iraq.
He also reports that congressional response to the administration's foreign policy has been tepid, at best.
"More often than not, Congress largely upheld the administration's position, whether voting on an Iraq withdrawal deadline or addressing foreign policy legislation where the president has taken a position," McCormick said. "Over the first five years of his administration, President Bush has had a 78 percent success rate with Congress, one of the highest among recent presidents. Presidents Johnson and Kennedy are his nearest competitors, and both of those presidents had larger Democratic majorities in Congress than Bush's Republican majorities in the House and Senate."
The Bush administration recently suffered two judicial defeats to its foreign policy in the Hamdan v. Rumsfeld case decided by the U.S. Supreme Court in late June that struck down militant tribunals to try suspected members of al-Qaida, and in the warrant-less wiretapping case in a federal district court decision in early August. Such foreign policy defeats for the president from the judicial system are virtually unheard of, according to McCormick.
But despite their historic ramifications, he reports that these defeats are, at best, superficial because one will likely be overturned by appeal, and Congress has already initiated legislation to deal with the other.
He sees the midterm congressional election being the ultimate domestic constraint to affect change to the Bush foreign policy.
"Frankly," said McCormick, "it's an unusual way to address foreign policy in the American experience. Yet, if we think about this prospect in the current global context, it is one that is highly consistent with the promotion of democratic governance, either at home or abroad."
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