Newswise — Valerie Bunce is a professor of international studies at Cornell University and is currently co-authoring the book “Defeating Authoritarian Leaders in Postcommunist Countries.” She comments on today’s anti-government protests in Moscow.
Bunce says: “The question is whether this movement will continue, despite these crackdowns, and, if continuing, how it will influence President Putin’s policies and Russian politics.
“What we know from other cases, such as Egypt in 2011 and the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004, is that authoritarian rulers rarely embrace democratic reforms in the face of significant popular pressure, and they are even less likely to do so when their popular support is declining and when, as with Putin, they are forced to contend with a more significant opposition presence in key political bodies, such as the parliament.
“At the same time, crackdowns can have unintended consequences. Citizens can become angry and decide in growing numbers that the movement has a point, and political differences within the movement — which are sizeable in Russia — can narrow because of agreement on a common enemy. At the very least, however, the Russian demonstrations since late 2011 and the ruling party’s loss of seats in the parliament suggest that the new Putin regime will not be like the old one from 2000 to 2008. Putin has forfeited his political invincibility.”
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