Newswise — As the flu season nears, an international team of researchers is using computers to prepare for a possible pandemic influenza, a type of flu that could infect millions of people worldwide.
The work is part of an ongoing effort called the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, a component of the National Institutes of Health.
Since November 2004, the researchers have been developing computer models that simulate the potential spread of pandemic flu. Many health officials speculate that the next pandemic could emerge if the avian flu currently circulating among wild birds and poultry becomes easily transmissible between people.
By using computer models, the MIDAS scientists can see how different factors, like the contagiousness of the flu virus, can change how quickly the virus might spread between people in rural and urban regions. They also can introduce intervention strategies to study how measures such as vaccination, quarantine, school closures, and travel restrictions potentially stop or slow that spread.
To date, the researchers have modeled pandemic flu outbreaks in Southeast Asia, the United States, and Great Britain. While the details of each model vary, the general conclusions are similar: Implementing a variety of public health measures soon after the first cases appear can significantly lessen the impact.
In response to a request from the White House National Security Council, the MIDAS researchers are currently evaluating the effectiveness of community containment, a strategy in which a local area implements measures to reduce the transmission of influenza within that community. These measures could include closing schools, requiring sick people and their household members to stay home, telecommuting and videoconferencing, limiting public gatherings, and distributing antiviral drugs to treat infection. The researchers plan to publish the results in the coming months.
For more information about MIDAS and to view MIDAS simulations, visit http://www.nigms.nih.gov/Initiatives/MIDAS/. A fact sheet is available at http://www.nigms.nih.gov/Initiatives/MIDAS/Background/Factsheet.htm.
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