Sure It’s White Now, but What About Christmas?

Released: 18-Dec-2013 1:00 PM EST
Source Newsroom: Cornell University
Contact Information

Available for logged-in reporters only

Newswise — Jessica Spaccio, a climatologist with the NOAA-funded Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University, crunched numbers from the past 50 years of weather observations - from 1963 through 2012 - to calculate the best places for snow on the ground come Christmas and a dry drive to those New Year's Eve parties. From Alaska to Amarillo to Atlantic City, here's how she sees it.

Spaccio says:

“If you're dreaming of a white Christmas, Pinkham Notch, N.H., has a 93 percent probability of fulfilling your dreams. Another high probability is Caribou, Maine, at 90 percent. If you'd rather not deal with the snow, stick closer to the coast: Lewes, Del. (5 percent), Salisbury, Md. (7 percent), Philadelphia, Pa. (8 percent), Washington, D.C. (8 percent), Atlantic City, N.J. (9 percent), Dover, Del. (9 percent).

“Looking outside the Northeast, Alaska is the clear choice for snow - Fairbanks has a 100 percent probability. Alternatively, a few cities have 0 percent probability: Augusta, Ga., Las Vegas, and Columbia, S.C.

“If you're planning to hit the streets in New York City on New Year's Eve, there's a 50 percent probability of precipitation. Not as bad as Buffalo, N.Y. with 66 percent probability. If you're looking to stay dry, weather speaking only, Las Vegas is the place to be, with only 2 percent probability for precipitation.

“These statistics are based on the previous 50 years of historical data. They provide a best estimate without looking at current conditions and forecast models. The U.S. has already seen some snow this year, so some cities are already white. It's also been an active period for storms, so even if the probabilities are low for your city - don't give up hope - Mother Nature always surprises us.”

Media Note: Lists of the probability of Christmas snow and New Year's Eve precipitation for select U.S. cities are below. That same data, plus graphics and the latest NOAA snow cover map can be downloaded from: https://cornell.box.com/WhiteChristmas2013

For interviews contact:
John Carberry
office: 607-255-5353
cell: 607-227-0767
johncarberry@cornell.edu

Snow on the ground for Christmas Day - Select U.S. cities

City Percent probability of 1" or more of snow on the ground on Dec. 25
Albuquerque, NM 2
Amarillo, TX 12
Atlantic City, NJ 9
Augusta, GA 0
Baltimore, MD 10
Boise, ID 26
Boston, MA 19
Boulder, CO 44
Burlington, VT 68
Casper, WY 47
Charleston, WV 23
Chicago, IL 42
Cleveland, OH 46
Columbia, SC 0
Concord, NH 69
Des Moines, IA 44
Detroit, MI 69
Dover, DE 9
Duluth, MN 96
Eugene, OR 5
Fairbanks, AK 100
Flagstaff, AZ 60
Grand Forks, ND 85
Hartford, CT 47
Helena, MT 61
Huntsville, AL 2
Indianapolis, IN 28
Las Vegas, NV 0
Little Rock, AR 4
Louisville, KY 14
Madison, WS 70
Memphis, TN 6
New York, NY 10
Oklahoma City, OK 6
Omaha, NE 34
Philadelphia, PA 8
Portland, ME 62
Providence, RI 24
Raleigh, NC 2
Richmond, VA 5
Salt Lake City, UT 58
Seattle, WA 8
Sioux Falls, SD 60
St. Louis, MO 26
Syracuse, NY 66
Topeka, KS 18
Washington, D.C. 8

Snow on the ground for Christmas Day - Select Northeast cities

City Probability of 1" or more of snow on the ground on Dec. 25
Albany, NY 46
Amherst, MA 51
Atlantic City, NJ 9
Baltimore, MD 10
Bangor, ME 77
Berlin, NH 87
Boston, MA 19
Bridgeport, CT 24
Buffalo, NY 62
Burlington, VT 68
Caribou, ME 90
Charleston, WV 23
Concord, NH 69
Dover, DE 9
East Wareham, MA 26
Elkins, WV 31
Erie, PA 56
Hartford, CT 47
Ithaca, NY 59
Lewes, DE 5
New Brunswick, NJ 18
New York, NY 10
Newark, NJ 16
Philadelphia, PA 8
Pinkham Notch, NH 93
Pittsburgh, PA 30
Portland, ME 62
Providence, RI 24
Rochester, NY 56
Rutland, VT 72
Salisbury, MD 7
State College, PA 33
Stroudsburg, PA 36
Syracuse, NY 66
Washington, D.C. 8
Watertown, NY 69

Precipitation on New Year's Eve - Select U.S. cities

City Probability of measurable precipitation on Dec. 31

Albuquerque, NM 10
Amarillo, TX 12
Atlantic City, NJ 42
Baltimore, MD 42
Boston, MA 44
Boulder, CO 20
Burlington, VT 44
Casper, WY 32
Charleston, WV 52
Chicago, IL 30
Cleveland, OH 52
Concord, NH 40
Des Moines, IA 22
Dover, DE 31
Duluth, MN 46
Eugene, OR 54
Fairbanks, AK 38
Flagstaff, AZ 12
Hartford, CT 46
Helena, MT 26
Huntsville, AL 50
Knoxville, TN 54
Las Vegas, NV 2
Los Angeles, CA 14
Madison, WS 22
Marquette, MI 50
Miami, FL 18
Morehead City, NC 22
New Orleans, LA 50
New York, NY 50
Oklahoma City, OK 24
Omaha, NE 18
Philadelphia, PA 42
Portland, ME 42
Providence, RI 46
Richmond, VA 48
Salt Lake City, UT 34
Seattle, WA 52
Sioux Falls, SD 12
St. Louis, MO 40
Topeka, KS 26
Washington, D.C. 44

Precipitation on New Year's Eve - Select Northeast cities

City Probability of measurable precipitation on Dec. 31
Albany, NY 50
Amherst, MA 28
Bangor, ME 34
Berlin, NH 33
Boston, MA 44
Bridgeport, CT 46
Buffalo, NY 66
Burlington, VT 44
Caribou, ME 46
Concord, NH 40
East Wareham, MA 34
Hartford, CT 46
Ithaca, NY 33
New York, NY 50
Pittsburgh, PA 54
Portland, ME 42
Providence, RI 46
Rochester, NY 56
Rutland, VT 45
State College, PA 45
Syracuse, NY 57
Watertown, NY 56
Philadelphia, PA 42
Erie, PA 60
Stroudsburg, PA 42
New Brunswick, NJ 30
Atlantic City, NJ 42
Newark, NJ 44
Elkins, WV 56
Charleston, WV 52
Baltimore, MD 42
Salisbury, MD 50
Dover, DE 31
Lewes, DE 43
Washington, D.C. 44

Contact the Press Relations Office for information about Cornell's TV and radio studios.


Comment/Share