The Professor at the University of Malaga José Luis Torres, who, together with Professor Anelà Bongers, have coordinated a project on Space Economy that establishes, from a quantitative point of view, a theoretical model that determines the rate of satellite launches that is optimal to maximize benefits based on the amount of space debris.
Newswise — Since the launch of the first satellite in 1957, the proliferation of space debris has continued unabated. The European Space Agency (ESA) estimates that over 131 million useless objects, ranging from 1 millimeter to 10 centimeters in size, currently orbit the Earth at an average speed of 36,000 kilometers per hour. These debris originate from various sources, including spent rocket stages, defunct satellites, and even tools misplaced by astronauts in space.
"Any fragment larger than 1 centimeter poses a potentially lethal threat in the event of a collision," warns Professor José Luis Torres from the University of Malaga. Together with Professor Anelí Bongers, he has spearheaded a project on Space Economy that introduces a quantitative theoretical model determining the optimal rate of satellite launches to maximize benefits while considering the quantity of space debris.
Drawing upon data from NASA and ESA, the developed model employs computational simulations to analyze the impact of anti-satellite tests on the accumulation of space debris and the likelihood of collisions with operational satellites. Currently, there are approximately 6,000 satellites in orbit.
Thus, the model proposed by these researchers at the University of Malaga, as published in the scientific journal Defense and Peace Economics, dynamically assesses the quantity of space debris based on the optimal behavior of space-operating companies in determining the rate of launches and the number of satellites.
According to these experts, the amount of space debris negatively affects the number of launches and satellites. "Calculations also reveal that anti-satellite tests generate over 102,000 additional debris pieces larger than 1 centimeter, and their detrimental effects persist for 1,000 years due to the high altitudes at which the tests are conducted," they affirm.
Market failure
Researchers at the University of Malaga (UMA) have approached the study of space from an economic standpoint, recognizing it as a global common resource that, akin to the high seas, is at risk of being overexploited. They highlight the absence of explicit regulations, aside from a non-binding International Treaty of the United Nations, which has led to a market failure. Without clear property rights, there is a tendency for mismanagement of this resource, resulting in negative externalities.
The UMA researchers further emphasize that our growing dependence on space-operating companies, particularly technology firms, will contribute to the continued escalation of space debris and the increased likelihood of collisions.
"We are confronting an immense unregulated market, and the challenges it presents have only just begun," underscore the UMA researchers.
Star Wars: a war in space
Researchers at the University of Malaga (UMA) have approached the study of space from an economic standpoint, recognizing it as a global common resource that, akin to the high seas, is at risk of being overexploited. They highlight the absence of explicit regulations, aside from a non-binding International Treaty of the United Nations, which has led to a market failure. Without clear property rights, there is a tendency for mismanagement of this resource, resulting in negative externalities.
The UMA researchers further emphasize that our growing dependence on space-operating companies, particularly technology firms, will contribute to the continued escalation of space debris and the increased likelihood of collisions.
"We are confronting an immense unregulated market, and the challenges it presents have only just begun," underscore the UMA researchers.
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