Newswise — RUDN engineers analyzed reasons for space debris creation in near-Earth space over past 10 years. The amount of space debris continues to grow. It turned out that the reason for this is increased number of smallsat launches. Results are published in the journal Acta Astronautica.
Rocket upper stages, broken satellites, debris from explosions and other objects become space debris. Around 75% of such objects end up in low orbits and poses threat for spacecraft and objects on Earth. From 2007 to 2009, the amount of space debris in low orbits increased by more than 40%. This is associated with several major events - the collision between Cosmos-2251 and Iridium-33 satellites, as well as the destruction of Fengun-1C meteorological satellite. Since 2011, the amount of space debris has continued to grow, although similar events have not occurred. To find out reasons why near-Earth orbits continues to be “clogged up”, RUDN engineers analyzed open data on launches and destruction of objects.
More than 90 countries, international organizations and companies conduct space activities. The number of participants and, accordingly, the number of objects in near-Earth space is growing. But as it turns out, space is a limited resource, both in terms of available orbits and radio frequency spectrum of transmitted data. Space debris in near-Earth space is an inherent negative consequence of space activities that limits this resource.
Engineers named reasons for increase in amount of space debris in low orbits in 2011-2021. First of all, this is an increase number of new launches of smallsats, as well as groups of satellites. The amount of destruction, as engineers found out, is described as a completely random variable. But number of objects that "re-entry" and burn up in atmosphere is associated with solar activity. Researchers noted a correlation between the number of objects entering into atmosphere and solar activity index F10.7. - it characterizes the average daily flux of radio emission from Sun.
In period from 2010 to 2021, RUDN engineers identified four periods by number of launches. The most active period is 2020 and 2021, when more than a thousand spacecraft were launched. For comparison, in 2010-2012, the number of launched spacecraft did not exceed a hundred. Most of the fragments of destruction were observed in 2010, 2015 and 2020 - 313, 720 and 644, respectively, and the most "calm" years were 2013 and 2017.
Destruction of space objects on analysis of available data is an absolutely random process. Both in terms of the number of cases and amount of debris generated. A significant increase in spatial density of objects in low orbits began in 2017, after activation of small spacecraft launches.
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