Americans will go to the polls in November for the 2018 midterm elections, and the outcome will determine what policies are pursued by Congress in the years before the 2020 presidential election. As in all midterm elections, an important factor will be the turnout rate of constituencies either supporting or opposing candidates.
Doug Kriner, professor in Cornell University’s Government Department, says that the foreign policy choices made by President Trump may sway combat constituencies whose vote may prove decisive in a number of tight races.
Bio: https://government.cornell.edu/douglas-l-kriner
Kriner says:
“Few 2016 election post-mortems considered the possibility that foreign policy contributed to Donald Trump’s surprising victory. However, research suggests that Trump’s unique messaging, promising a foreign policy that would be both more muscular and restrained, resonated with a key voting bloc made up of ‘combat communities’ that suffered in American wars.
“Trump won back voters in communities that suffered high casualty rates in Iraq and Afghanistan. While foreign policy is less salient today than it was in the 2006 midterms when Democrats rode a wave of anti-war fervor to power, it could be pivotal in these constituencies. These communities are spread across the country, and therefore have the potential to influence a number of tight races.
“In office, President Trump has reversed course on Afghanistan, escalating our military commitment there rather than ending it. More broadly, Trump’s bellicose rhetoric has often contrasted with his campaign pledge to avoid the ‘stupid wars’ of his predecessors. Whether Trump’s uneven record helps or hurts Republicans in long-suffering combat constituencies could make the difference in party control of the 116th Congress.”
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