Newswise — In a recent publication in Scientific Reports, researchers conducted an extensive investigation using data from 30 years of global satellite and model studies to explore the potential impact of ocean wave changes on coastal stability.
The study focused on the compounding effects of climate change-induced variations in waves, storm surge, and sea level rise. It projected that these factors could lead to shifts in shoreline positions along sandy coasts worldwide.
Led by Mandana Ganavati, a PhD candidate from the University of Melbourne, and Professor Ian Young, the research team collaborated with colleagues from IHE Delft Institute for Water Education and Deltares of the Netherlands. Their analysis involved studying shoreline position changes over the past three decades on a global scale. These changes were then compared to alterations in wave and storm surge characteristics along the same coastlines.
The findings revealed that while many shorelines globally are dynamic and respond to wave and storm surge events in the short to medium term, there was no clear evidence that the long-term changes in waves and storm surge directly caused lasting recession of coastlines over the studied period.
According to Ms. Ganavati, there is a common belief that climate change-induced increases in wind speeds and ocean waves are affecting coastlines worldwide.
The rise in mean sea level due to global warming is expected to cause coastal recession, posing a threat to homes, infrastructure, and ecosystems in many locations. However, on a global scale, the observed changes in waves and storm surge over the last 30 years seem to be too small to have a significant impact.
Instead, Ms. Ganavati suggests that other factors like variations in sediment supply from rivers, sediment transport along the shore, and human management of coastlines are likely to have had a more substantial influence on changing shoreline positions during the past three decades.
Looking ahead, climate change and mean sea level rise are still projected to lead to widespread coastal recession along sandy coasts throughout the twenty-first century, potentially causing significant disruptions and socioeconomic losses. However, based on the available datasets, this study did not find clear connections between long-term shoreline changes and the changes in waves and storm surge over the past 30 years.
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